The Consistency of the NBA’s Number One Picks

1991-2005

After First Year WP48 is career WP48 calculated without a player’s first year performance

WP48 = Wins Produced per 48 minutes

Number One Pick

Draft

Rank

First Year

Rank

After First Year

First Year

WP48

After First Year

WP48

Tim Duncan

1997

2

1

0.304

0.336

Shaquille O'Neal

1992

1

2

0.339

0.330

Dwight Howard

2004

3

3

0.234

0.303

LeBron James

2003

10

4

0.099

0.287

Yao Ming

2002

5

5

0.218

0.237

Elton Brand

1999

7

6

0.162

0.230

Chris Webber

1993

4

7

0.233

0.170

Andrew Bogut

2005

8

8

0.140

0.145

Larry Johnson

1991

6

9

0.193

0.108

Allen Iverson

1996

13

10

0.023

0.092

Kenyon Martin

2000

12

11

0.049

0.087

Glenn Robinson

1994

11

12

0.055

0.080

Kwame Brown

2001

15

13

-0.017

0.073

Joe Smith

1995

9

14

0.124

0.057

Michael Olowokandi

1998

14

15

0.016

-0.022

Andrea Bargnani

2006

16

???

-0.037

???