Technical
Notes for The Wages of Wins
Below is a column that was posted at The Wages of Wins Journal on August 20,
2006. From a link contained in this post
you can see the estimation of the NBA gate revenue and road attendance models
detailed in Chapter Five of the book. The
post also references an article that details the QB Score model. This paper has been published and the
citation is as follows:
Berri,
David J.(2007). “Back to Back
Evaluation on the Gridiron.” In Statistical Thinking in Sports, eds.
James H. Albert and Ruud H. Koning,
(pp. 235-256). Chapman & Hall/CRC: 235-256.
Win Score and Wins Produced, the two
models we use to evaluate NBA players, were both extensively detailed in the
book (two chapters and eight pages of end notes are devoted to the construction
of these two models). Still, for those
interested in even more details, the following papers will be of interest.
Berri, David J.
(1999). “Who is Most Valuable? Measuring the Player’s
Production of Wins in the National Basketball Association.”Managerial and Decision Economics, 20, n8; Fall: 411- 427.
Berri,
David J., and Anthony Krautmann. (2006).
"Shirking on the Court: Testing for the Dis-Incentive
Effects of Guaranteed Pay." Economic Inquiry. 44, n3; (July): 536-546.
Berri (1999) presents a model of wins that is not quite as good
as the one presented in The Wages of Wins.
But the steps one follows to go from the estimation of the wins model to
the measure of wins produced by a player are explained.
Berri and Krautmann (2006) presented
the basic model of wins (based on offensive and defensive efficiency, which you
can also see HERE) used
in The Wages of Wins. This paper also
details a version of the metric labeled Win Score in the book. The Berri and Krautmann (2006) work, though, does
not incorporate blocked shots, personal fouls, and assists. How those are added into the model is
detailed in The Wages of Wins.
Or, you can turn to the following
paper (to be published in 2008):
Berri,
David J. “A Simple
Measure of Worker Productivity in the National Basketball Association.”
In The Business of Sport, eds. Brad Humphreys and Dennis Howard,
editors, 3 volumes, Westport, Conn.: Praeger. forthcoming in 2008.
This paper presents the entire Wins
Produced and Win Score model. If you
read The Wages of Wins, as well as Berri (1999) and Berri and Krautmann (2006), you
will not learn much that is new. You
will see an explanation of the link between team wins and offensive and
defensive efficiency. But once that link
is established, readers of the book and the previous article will see much that
is quite familiar. Still, it might be
good to see the entire story presented at once.
Or if you don’t want to look at all
the academic work, the following might be helpful.
The Wins
Produced Calculation for 1977-78 and 2006-07
BTW:
Now that the “Simple Measure...” paper is completed, more information will be
posted in this forum. At least, that’s
the plan.
In the book we
promised to post some of the technical details behind our analysis. So
far we have failed to live up to this promise. This is primarily because
we are lazy and frankly did not think too many people were that
interested. But apparently some people do wish to see some details.
Stacey looked
through the book and he says this is exactly what we promised in each
chapter:
Chapter 1:
No promises
Chapter 2:
Promised to post the intervention analysis of NBA attendance.
Chapter 3:
Promised statistical details about adding payroll.
Chapter 4:
No promises
Chapter 5:
In footnote 19 we promised that we would place the estimation of the NBA gate revenue
model on the website.
Chapter 6:
In footnote 24 we promised that we would post the math behind calculating the
number of team rebounds that change possessions on the website.
Chapter 7:
No promises
Chapter 8:
In footnote 1 we mention that we should put a question on the website regarding
which was the most obscure beginning to a chapter – The David Hume quote at the
start of chapter three or the Frank Sinatra quote at the start of chapter
eight.
Chapter 9:
No promises
Chapter 10:
No promises
I can’t keep all
these promises today, but I can make a start. So HERE is the
estimation of the NBA gate revenue model noted in chapter five. As a bonus,
I am also including the estimation of the NBA road attendance model also
mentioned in the chapter. As for the other material….Marty says he will
try and get the NBA attendance results posted soon.
The discussion of
team rebounds will be included in a paper I am currently trying to finish that
will explain all the details behind Wins Produced and Win Score. That
paper should be finished in the next few months.
For now, though, I
promised Jim Albert and Ruud H. Koning – the editors of a forthcoming book
entitled “Statistical Thinking in Sports” – that I would write a chapter
explaining the details behind the NFL productivity model discussed in Chapter
Nine of The Wages of Wins. This paper is due at the end of
August. Hey, that only gives me eleven days to
finish. Okay, I better get to work.
Sorry again for
all the delays in getting this material posted. We will get everything
out there soon.
Well, maybe not
the Hume-Sinatra poll.
– DJ