| Thursday, Jun 22 2006 1:50 AM
Last Updated: Thursday, Jun 22 2006 1:54 AM
I was an economics major
in school. That's right, Econ. Must not have been a very good one, I know, ha
ha.
I got oh too unfamiliar with the great economic minds --
John Maynard Keynes, John Kenneth Galbraith, Alfred Marshall, Alfred E. Newman. What? Me worry?
But had any of them gotten into applying their labor,
supply and demand, diminishing return and regression theories to sports fan
loyalties, NBA player evaluations and NFL quarterback ratings the way local
economist David Berri has, I'd have paid more
attention.
Berri, 36, is an associate professor of economics at Cal
State Bakersfield in one life, and a debunker of conventional wisdom, just like
his boy Galbraith, in his other life. He was recently featured on the Op-ed page
of The New York Times using his theories to break down the NBA Finals --
"What the non-scorers do matters," he concluded -- and he's co-authored a book
titled "Wages of Wins: Taking Measure of the Many Myths of Modern Sport," in
which he gets to economically debunk away in a breezy, sometimes humorous
fashion. It's been out about a month now and the best way to get it is on
Amazon.com. You can read excerpts and reviews by going to
www.wagesofwins.com.
Think being a big scorer makes Allen Iverson a great
basketball player, do ya? Think strikes and lockouts
drive away fans? Think high salaries create a competitive imbalance? Think fans
watch NBA games because of the stars of the game? Think players like Michael
Jordan and Kobe Bryant make their teammates better? Think quarterbacks win and
lose games?
Berri has solid evidence based on formulas encompassing
economic theories and statistical equations taking in a wide range of data that
you'd be wrong on all accounts.
"People and particularly broadcasters will say this and
that about somebody, but when the data comes back, it's often, 'no you're wrong,
it doesn't say that,'" he says.
The book contains bits and pieces of dozens of his
previously written academic papers tearing apart commonly held notions, and
evaluating talent based on his not-yet-patented-but-should-be "wins produced"
formula. I can't explain it, but what it is is an
equation that crunches all scoring and non scoring data (rebounds, assists, shot
blocks, etc.) relative to a player's position -- 10 rebounds for a small forward
is worth more than 10 boards for a power forward, for example -- and spits out
at the end the number of wins a player produces for his team per 48 minutes
played and per season. I can tell you this, efficiency is key and a rebound is as valuable as a bucket, which explains
why Dennis Rodman was worth so much to Berri's beloved
Pistons, maybe more than Isiah Thomas
even.
"Without Rodman, the Pistons went bad," Berri said, with a straight face,
actually.
Adding up all the "wins produced" numbers Berri crunched for each member of the 2005-06 Mavericks, as
a team the Mavs should have won 57.4 games during the
regular season. Doing the same for the Heat, they should have won 51.2 games.
The Mavs actually won 60 and the Heat 52, so Berri's got that working for him against those who want to
argue that his concept is bogus. Moreover, he says, if general managers took his
methods of analysis to heart they could build better
teams.
Economic theories come into play more when debunking
myths about lockouts keeping fans away, competitive balance and great players
making others on the team better. Law of diminishing returns is the appropriate
theory when debating how Kobe Bryant makes Smush
Parker a better player, which he doesn't, Berri would
assert, largely because of the common sensibilities of the theory applied to the
team dynamic. "If you add more productive players to your team, you can expect
either the productivity of the new players or the productivity of existing
players to decline," he writes in the book on page 115.
"Wins produced" is the concept that will get most
readers attention -- it got mine -- but I don't see a whole lot of economic
theory built in, unless you're evaluating Lamar Odom and his decline in wins
produced because he now plays on Kobe's team (see diminishing returns) or any
other player now matched with a superstar. The book will give you "wins
produced" season rankings for 2004-05 -- Kevin Garnett 30.0 (leads all players),
MVP Steve Nash, 16.1; Shaq, 15.9; Dirk Nowitzki, 17.2; Allen Iverson, 10; LeBron James, 21.7; Dwayne Wade, 8.2. -- but go to Berri's blog page (www.dberri.wordpress.com), and you get
some detailed breakdowns of this year's NBA season along with new "wins
produced" numbers and Berri's picks for All
NBA.
NBA MVP? Not Steve Nash. Not Kobe Bryant
. . it's Kevin Garnett, hands down the most
productive player in the NBA the past four years. Bryant, who produced 14.3
wins, doesn't make Berri's first, second or third
all-NBA teams, although he's the next most productive guard behind Detroit's
Chauncey Billups. Shaq, 8.5
wins for the Heat, doesn't make any of the teams, either. Both Kobe and Shaq made made the official
All-NBA First Team, along with Nash, Nowitzki and
James. Berri's first team was comprised of Garnett,
Nash, Ben Wallace (20.1 wins), Shawn Marion (22.6) and Jason Kidd
(23.7).
Iverson and Carmelo Anthony,
players high up on a lot of favorite player lists, combined for just 13 wins
produced.
I kept wanting to divert his
attention to baseball and the Cubs, but then again conventional wisdom tells me
there ain't no theories out there that can help
them.