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"...Freakonomics meets ESPN." —Alan
Schwarz, author, The Numbers Game
Taking Measure of the Many Myths
in Modern Sport
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Reviews | What's Inside | Where to Order | Stanford University Press |
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Chapter
Excerpts
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Here is a detailed look at the Table of Contents. Chapter One: Games with Numbers Freakonomics and Alfred Marshall The “Laugh Test”
Chapter Two: Much Talking, Little Walking The Summer of 2002 The story in the National Basketball Association The story in the other “national” sports The story in our National Pastime A Few Lingering Questions
Chapter Three: Can You Buy the Fan’s Love? Are the Yankees Good for baseball? Is it really a Blue Ribbon panel? The independence of the Blue Ribbon Panel Different samples yield different conclusions For samples, size matters Playoffs are for fun, not for science Size of payrolls is not equal to size of markets You can’t buy love in Major League Baseball A Few More Questions
Chapter Four: Baseball’s Competitive Balance Problem? Competitive balance: Theory and Measurement The theory of competitive balance The many measures of competitive balance A simple measure of competitive balance The need for “something else” Baseball’s reserve rule A Nobel Prize for Sports Economics You say you want some evolution. Balancing Many Sports Does Baseball Have a Competitive Balance Problem?
Chapter Five: The NBA’s Competitive Balance Problem? Blue Ribbon Analysis for the NBA The Star Attraction in the NBA His Airness The value of Jordan Stars at the Gate The NBA Champions at the gate “The Answer” in Philadelphia Back to New York Understanding NBA performance at the gate Stars on the Road The basic road story Understanding NBA performance on the road Back to Competitive Balance
Chapter Six: Shaq and Kobe Shaq and Kobe, the Saga Begins A Few Different Answers NBA Efficiency Measures Plus-Minus moves from the ice to the hardwood The Labor Theory of Value The market approach Modeling Team Wins in the NBA The simple, and occasionally misleading, correlation coefficient Building a better model The value of each statistic Unassisted Wins Production
Chapter Seven: Who is the Best? A Simple Model of Unassisted Productivity Making Your Teammates Better, the Value of an Assist, and Other Short Stories Making your teammates better? The Law of Diminishing Returns Finally, the value of an assist Evaluating Efficiency with NBA Efficiency Shaq and Kobe, the Sequel Shaq’s story Kobe’s story Who is the Best? The Most Productive Player in 2004 The Most Productive Player in 2005 Twelve years of “best” players Who is the best? One answer How about “The Answer”? Catching a Draft in 1996
Chapter Eight: A Few Chicago Stories The Jordan Legend The Best Team Ever The Decline and Rebirth of the Chicago Bulls The NBA Draft Lottery Eddy Curry vs. Tyson Chandler Is Gordon the next Jordan? Can Any Player ‘Turn it On’? A few other stars And now a larger sample Insight into prime-time performance
Chapter Nine: How Are Quarterbacks Like Mutual Funds? There’s Something About Brett The NFL Quarterback Rating System Wins and Net Points Production in the NFL Connecting points to wins Modeling team offense Modeling team defense A simple model of quarterback productivity The Quarterbacks of Super Bowl XXXIX Brady and McNabb in 2004 Another myth – assigning wins and losses to quarterbacks McNabb and Brady – Super Bowl XXXIX Who is the Best? The Quarterback’s Story The best ever? Quarterback rating, again Consistent Inconsistency The Brett Favre story, again The simple story of inconsistency Adding just a bit of sophistication Consistency in Sports Back to baseball And back to basketball
Chapter Ten: Scoring to Score Under-rated and Over-rated in 2004-05 The Rational Coach The “best” rookie The All-Rookie team The Rational General Manager Playing the “Right Way” Playing to score Reviewing our pay and productivity lessons Predicting the Future The Rational Economist The instruments of rationality The economist’s fable The Final Word? |
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